A quite incredible day’s racing and for sure the highlight comes from Leopardstown as the first ever Dublin Festival commences today. I’m going to watch the action from Ireland without getting involved and I’m particularly excited to see how Dortmund Park, the impressive 16 length winner, get’s on today (no bet at 2/1 though!)
Just one pick today and it comes at Lingfield, ROSE TINTED SPIRIT is an unexposed sort for Ralph Beckett and looked to be a progressive colt improving race-by-race as a 2-year-old. His first race as a 3-year-old was disappointing when you look on bare form but the Beckett colt dropped out the stalls and lost a few lengths before the race had began. Oisin Murphy takes the mount on this horse for the Rooney’s and is an impressive jockey booking. The jury is still out on Swiss Spirit’s progeny but with Swiss Spirit being by Invincible Spirit, I expect the offspring to improve as 3-year-olds somewhat.
Rose Tinted Spirit e/w 12:50 @ Lingfield 1.5pts e/w 10/1 PaddyPower
Had a week off and thus haven’t been posting tips. Tomorrow looks a good day for value betting and I’ve picked three out that I’m sure will get backed in.
My NAP of the day comes in the 1:40 at Southwell. SENATUS looks a quirky horse and made a few mistakes last time out but inevitably showed some class above the rest and now is back over fibresand under a 6lbs penalty. With the in-form P J McDonald back on board and if he can leave the stalls comfortably should be able to stay up with likely pacemaker, Brigadoon, and will take all the beating over the longer trip.
SENATUS to win 1:40 Southwell NAP 11/10 William Hill, Betfred, PaddyPower 4pts
Another horse that looks interesting at Southwell is JACK BLANE who was the receiver of early market support can still be backed at 5/1 generally. The 4-year-old gelding stayed on strongly from a wide stall when 3rd of 16 last time out. Now with a favourable draw and back over a winning distance of 7f could see a return to the winners enclosure. Should stay up with the pacemakers and kick on in the final furlong.
JACK BLANE to win 3:25 Southwell 5/1 General 2.5pts
Over to Lingfield and I conclude with a 16/1 find. The 9 year old gelding FILATORE has dropped 22lb down the weights over the past year and a quarter now looks well handicapped. He showed a return to form in a seller last time given an impossible task at the weights and he will be suited by today’s trip and importantly goes well on heavy ground. At 16/1 and the receiver of early market support it makes Filature look a big price under his current weight with amateur Jordan Williams taking a further 7lbs off.
FILATORE e/w 4:15 Lingfield 16/1 General 1pt e/w
Let’s hope for a change of fortune! I’ve picked out a 25/1 and 13/2 today, that are just too big and are likely to shorten as the day goes on.
HAYLEY BELLE sold to the shrewd Mark Bradstock for £48,000 and it’s likely he had an owner in mind for this mare whom on point-to-point form could be well-in, in this class 4 novice hurdle. Her 3rd on her first start looks good form with Mystic Theatre, 12l behind in 4th, now has a RPR of 148. However, her first start under rules was disappointing pulling up over the 3m start BUT the drop in trip to 2m4f should suit being by Flemensfirth. Add to that, first time tongue-tie and this should keep the mare in check, this looks far too big at 25/1 and it’s worth giving the mare a second chance over rules.
HAYLEY BELLE e/w 1:00 @ Leicester 25/1 Hills, Betfred 1.5pts e/w NAP
CANADIAN ROYAL has put up some decent efforts over 6f and 7f for trainer, Stuart Williams, whom is in great form (RTF 75%) and boasts an impressive record of 8 winners from 30 at Southwell (last 5 years). The 4-year-old gelding seemed to improve for the step up to 7f on his last two starts, staying on in both occassions. P J McDonald’s (19% last 14 days) went very close in 3rd behind the well backed Best Tamayuz around here last time and could go better this time over a mile. The major opposition comes from the 40/1 second LTO, Indigo Princess, who has poor form over a mile and Sooqaan who will have to produce something special for the harsh 6lb penalty. My selection is quickly turned back out after only four days and looks good value off the same mark.
CANADIAN ROYAL to win 4:10 @ Southwell 13/1 2pts win
Sorry for lack of reasoning…
Astrum to win 3:55 @ Fakenham 7/2 general 2pts win
Zabeel Star e/w 6:20 @ Wolverhampton 8/1 Hills, Betfred, Coral 2pts e/w NAP
Exciting day’s racing today with an impressive Un De Sceaux winning the Clarence House… again! I’ve picked out one for tomorrow that I think looks too big at the current 13/2 on offer. I may add a couple in the morning.
LEITH HILL LEGASI was a good 3rd on New Years Eve three weeks back on heavy ground and the runner-up has won by a wide margin since. Lower mark today and good 5lb claimer in Paul O’Brien also helping (17% this season), now in lower grade should go closer than odds suggest. She last won off a mark of 86 and has gone close a few times at around 90. She’s been dropped 2lb, and the 5lb claimer takes over, that’s effectively a 7lb drop. Should be in the frame at least and looks a value win selection.
LEITH HILL LEGASI to win 2:40 @ Fontwell 13/2 general 2pts win
After another look through the cards Sunday morning – I’ve picked another one out, this time at Chelmsford City.
STOSUR should go close in the 2:25 at Chelmsford, the Gay Kelleway trained 7-year-old mare has run well over course and distance recently and now drops in class to class 5 with a career low mark of 68. Add to this the very useful Rossa Ryan taking 5lb off (35% last 14 days) and we’ve got a real chance at a big looking 7/2 in a weak looking contest.
STOSUR to win 2:25 @ Chelmsford 7/2 1pt Bet365
A poor start to this year’s campaign but it’s only making me work harder and here’s four for Thursday…
BIB & TUCKER to win 12:20 @ Southwell 3/1 General 2pts
RATHLIN ROSE to win 2:10 @ Wincanton 5/1 General 2pts
ENIGMATIC to win 6:30 @ Chelmsford City 10/1 William Hill 1.5pts
ENOLA to win 9:00 @ Chelmsford 9/1 General NAP 3pts
A disappointing day yesterday with a strong fancy in Born to Size running no race at all, I’ve managed to pick four out today though and all hold obvious claims with a big outsider at 28/1. Even though all four tips are at Market Rasen, I have searched through all the cards for value.
One of Us to win 1:00 @ Market Rasen, 5/2 general 2pts
Morianour to win 1:30 @ Market Rasen, 4/1 3pts NAP
Three Musketeers to win 2:05 @ Market Rasen, 9/4 general 2pts
Simply Loveleh e/w 2:40 @ Market Rasen, 28/1 William Hill 1pt e/w